The short answer: looks like Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
The 2016 race has been packed full of contenders. This is who remains:
- Hillary Clinton
- Bernie Sanders
- Donald Trump
- Marco Rubio
- Ted Cruz
- John Kasich
- Ben Carson
Let’s start this analysis with the Democrats.
Clinton and Sanders have mostly been neck-and-neck, beginning with Iowa. But there’s a problem. Sanders can’t seem to leverage all his popularity into votes. Clinton, however, has an extensive network of millionaires and media contacts. It doesn’t seem to matter that she’s surrounded by criminal investigations. She’s still the frontrunner, FBI probe or no FBI. Most people speculate that she’s going to pull ahead. It might be close. And it might be dependent on Sanders turning up the heat.
On the Republican side of things, the Trump juggernaut keeps full steam ahead. Rubio has been stepping up to the plate like the Establishment wants, and it’s probably too little too late. Yes, Bush’s sponsors (among others) have been pouring gold into Rubio’s pockets. It’s still too late. Rubio is expected to lose even his own state – to Trump. It doesn’t help that Rubio isn’t doing the job he was elected to do. If you’re a Rubio fan, the outlook is grim.
Ted Cruz has a small chance to win Texas over Trump, except no one likes Cruz. Even Evangelicals – Cruz’s main focus – have been giving Trump more support. He’s the “nasty guy” in this race. Cruz did win Iowa and that turns out to be useless. Cruz can’t beat Trump in the end. Plus, Rubio is the Republican party’s choice. The RNC has made that clear. Cruz’s support is sand between his fingers, and time is running out. His leads are slipping away.
Ben Carson was once high in polls. Even, for a short time, the Republican frontrunner! And now Carson is floundering near the bottom. He’s expressed an extreme resistance to dropping out. It doesn’t look likely that Carson can stage a comeback.
CONCLUSION: The odds support Clinton and Trump. (Disclaimer: I am politically neutral and do not specifically endorse any of the above candidates.)