Geoff Lichy

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Category: Politics (page 2 of 2)

Another Super Tuesday

Clinton and Trump continue to roll on.

To no one’s surprise, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio have dropped out this month. Rubio was the establishment favorite after Bush left the campaign trail, and the same things happened to both. Super PACs just don’t have the clout they used to. The GOP’s last stand is now Kasich. I didn’t expect him to win Ohio; I underestimated his popularity there. Bernie Sanders continues to have huge support that can’t get translated into real world votes. Not enough to win a lot of states from Hillary, anyway.

Clinton and Trump are more than halfway to securing nominations. So far it looks like the November election will be these two facing off.

Apple versus the FBI: which side is right?

The truth is, no one really knows. It’s a complicated situation and every side has their points. I think an FBI victory could set a dangerous precedent that makes Americans less safe.

If you’re unfamiliar with what’s going on, here’s a basic explanation: A terrorist in San Bernardino had an iPhone and the FBI wants to break in. The FBI is demanding that Apple write a program that would allow the FBI access to the iPhone. For more details Sophos has a good article.

In this case, it’s unlikely the FBI will find anything of value. As admitted by the San Bernardino police chief. The shooters destroyed their personal phones beyond repair. The FBI wants to get into a work phone that was left behind. This brings up an important question. If the shooters were careful and disposed of relevant evidence, why would they leave any other evidence? I doubt they forgot about the work phone. Realistically, they didn’t bother to also destroy the work phone because it was irrelevant.

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Winners and losers on Super Tuesday

By delegate count:

Superdelegates are controversial and probably shouldn’t be counted. Those delegates are uncommitted – they don’t make an impact in elections yet. They can change their minds. With only committed delegates it’s a 594/405 split for Democrats.

The Republican side is a little different. There are fewer delegates and more candidates, so it could be harder to catch up. Sanders can beat Clinton in delegate count after winning a big state. Can Cruz beat Trump without a state like Florida? Trump is the current favorite there. And after Cruz’s New York values comments, Trump will easily beat him in New York.

If you want to see how the votes stack up in other ways, The Guardian has plenty of detail.

March 5th (Saturday) is the next big day for voters. June 14th is the last day of primary/caucus results.

People are now expecting a Trump versus Clinton head-to-head. National polls for the GOP show Trump with a commanding lead; with Cruz and Rubio fighting for second. National polls for Democrats give Clinton a noticeable lead that fluctuates in strength.

Who’s going to win big on Super Tuesday?

The short answer: looks like Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

The 2016 race has been packed full of contenders. This is who remains:

Democrats:

  • Hillary Clinton
  • Bernie Sanders

Republicans:

  • Donald Trump
  • Marco Rubio
  • Ted Cruz
  • John Kasich
  • Ben Carson

Let’s start this analysis with the Democrats.

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