I wrote my first post in April 2019. Now that we’re in December, about to enter 2020, let’s see where things stand. Currently, 15 people are vying for the position of Democratic Candidate.
Alphabetical order by last name, then their primary political experience:
Michael Bennet (Senator)
Joe Biden (White House)
Michael Bloomberg (Mayor)
Cory Booker (Senator)
Pete Buttigieg (Mayor)
Julián Castro (White House)
John Delaney (Representative)
Tulsi Gabbard (Representative)
Amy Klobuchar (Senator)
Deval Patrick (Governor)
Bernie Sanders (Senator)
Tom Steyer (No political experience)
Elizabeth Warren (Senator)
Marianne Williamson (No political experience)
Andrew Yang (No political experience)
- Biden 27%
- Sanders 16%
- Warren 14%
- Buttigieg 11.4%
- Bloomberg 4%
- Yang 2.8%
- Klobuchar 2.4%
- Booker 1.8%
- Steyer 1.6%
- Castro 1.4%
Everyone else is polling at 1% or less.
Election Betting Odds
- Biden 21.5%
- Buttigieg 19%
- Warren 16.1%
- Sanders 12.2%
- Bloomberg 8.9%
- Clinton 4.6% (even though Hillary isn’t running)
- Yang 3.6%
- Klobuchar 1.5%
- Gabbard 1.3%
- Obama 1.2% (even though Michelle isn’t running)
Thoughts and Observations
I haven’t heard anything out of Bennet since he announced his run, and he’s still polling under 1%. He’ll probably drop out soon.
Biden is struggling with image problems (either that or he doesn’t care) but his strong name-recognition clout among Democratic voters keeps him in first place. He has a chance of securing the nomination except I think his “ability to beat Trump” is overstated.
The issue with his appeal-to-nostalgia angle is that it’s a rehashed “Make America Great Again,” which won’t appeal to many Democrats. Other recent developments include: “A senior Joe Biden campaign staffer in charge of outreach to Latino, African-American and women’s groups has quit her post, telling two allies she was frustrated over her lack of input and with the presidential candidate’s immigration rhetoric.” (Politico)
I don’t know if he’s even running to win. No one knows what’s going to happen if someone drops a few billion into the race. Bloomberg already spent $23.7 million on a week’s worth of ads. Could he win? Let’s put it at 50/50 because Bloomberg is too unpredictable right now.
He’s still trying to find his message and is dropping in the polls after repeated failures. He may drop out because his campaign has parallels with Kamala Harris (who dropped out this week). Although Business Insider says Booker might gain some of her supporters, and Booker is #3 for endorsements. Regardless, Booker is barely clinging to 2% and doesn’t have a chance of beating the top 5 to become nominee. It’d take a catastrophic change to propel him to the top spot.
Although he’s young and does poorly with non-white demographics, he remains a contender. Despite a slight drop earlier this year, he’s shot back into the top 5, and is a thorn for Biden. There’s a decent chance Buttigieg will win the nomination.
He’s still not doing enough to stand out. Insufficient media coverage and poor fundraising will sink him, and I’m surprised Castro is still in the race. Seems like a fair choice for potential Vice President though.
He’s been running since June 2017 and still hasn’t gotten anyone to care about his campaign. As the first person to announce their candidacy, Delaney was technically first place in the polls at one point. But he’s never been able to break above 1%, as far as I know, and remains embarrassingly unpopular. As I said 8 months ago, he’s wasting time by staying in the race.
I stand by what I wrote in April saying she won’t win. Anyone who wants a moderate will vote for Biden or Buttigieg, since both are vastly more popular.
My opinion hasn’t changed since April. “He still has momentum from 2016 but I think his chances of winning are slightly worse than before. He’s also doing the same thing the DNC hated in 2016, running as a Democrat only for the presidential election and remaining an independent otherwise. They’re going to try and shut him out like last time, especially now he’s competing with Joe Biden.”
Might’ve had a chance, except Bloomberg jumped into the race, unseating Steyer as resident Aging Billionaire White Guy.
I underestimated her appeal and didn’t expect to see Warren in the top 3. However, I still don’t think she can beat Trump. She’s an academic making unrealistic propositions to radically change the American economy, and there’s no reason to try that when the economy is stable. We can use improvements, for sure, but Warren likes to go one step too far. This is part of her appeal in the primary, but in a general election that won’t fly.
Williamson is entertaining so it’s a shame she can’t get enough traction to break into the debates. I originally put that she had a 0% chance of winning, and it’s still true.
Who wouldn’t want $1000/month? But seriously, he’s a fair candidate and it’s great that a non-politician has stayed in the top 10 for so long. He’s bringing attention to a lot of issues which should be discussed more by his fellow candidates. Yang definitely isn’t the establishment choice though, evidenced by MSNBC excluding him from their material. I’m not convinced Yang can win the nomination when so many people are set on Biden/Buttigieg or Warren/Sanders. However, the winner might offer Yang a position as vice president or cabinet member.
- December 2: Steve Bullock dropped out. Someone named Joe Sestak also dropped out, apparently, but I didn’t even hear that he was running.
- December 3: Kamala Harris dropped out. We’re down to 15 Democrats running for nominee. And from the Washington Post: “With fewer than ten days left to qualify, only six Democratic candidates have made the cut for the sixth Democratic debate.” (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer, and Warren. Gabbard and Yang are close, only needing 1 qualifying poll each.)